Showing posts with label AHL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AHL. Show all posts

Tuesday, 1 May 2012

Man Group Quarterly Figures – Still Minor Outflows


Man Group Plc announced first quarter 2012 figures today.
31 March 2012 FUM of $59.0bn which represents a 1.0% increase quarter on quarter:
  • 31 Dec 2011 AUM: $58.4bn (as previously reported)
  • Net outflows: $1.0bn
  • Investment movement: $2.0bn
  • FX & other: -$0.4bn 
31 March 2012 FUM by product line:
  • Guaranteed: $9.1bn
  • Open-ended alternative: $25.0bn
  • Institutional FOF: $12.4bn
  • Long only: $12.5bn
There was a net outflow from alternative funds of $1.4 billion and a net inflow of $0.4 billion into long only styles.

Sales of open-ended alternatives were $1.7 billion and redemptions were $2.6 billion. Within this category, AHL had net outflows of $0.7 billion, driven mainly by continuing redemptions from Nomura Global Trend. GLG Alternatives recorded a small net outflow of $0.2 billion, with strong flows into the European long/short style offset by small outflows across a range of other strategies.
 
Performance fees: three-quarters of performance fee eligible GLG FUM at or within 5% of high water mark at end March. Man AHL 14% from peak on a weighted average basis.
Balance sheet: net cash of approximately $250m (down from $573m at 31 Dec). Surplus regulatory capital unchanged at $550m.
Outlook: reduced redemptions but sentiment remains fragile. Yet to see an increase in sales. More de-gearing anticipated - $0.4bn on 1 April and $0.6 on 1 May.
Valuation: Man trades at 5.8x 2012E EBITDA and at 9.8x 2012E adjusted diluted EPS.

Tuesday, 8 November 2011

Through the Lag - Europe's Leading Hedge Funds Add Investment Staff

One of the ways of looking at the health of a hedge fund business is in staffing levels. Like many other businesses in finance hedge funds cut back on headcount in late 2008 and into 2009, and the cutbacks in London based hedge funds continued into 2010 (see this article for data on last year). The tables here are disaggregated and show that of the 48 largest indigenous hedge fund groups under the FSA's jurisdiction 28 added staff at the level of approved persons (APs) - those carrying out partner/director/AML and compliance/investment/CEO/COO/CFO type functions- over the period from August last year to August this year.





In aggregate the top 48 hedge fund managers (by assets) in London added 6% to professional numbers over the year to August. It was noted here a year ago that headcount, as captured by approved persons registered with the FSA, was still declining two years after the original Credit Crunch of this century. So at last in 2011 hedge funds have got far enough beyond the assets under management low of late 2009 to have sufficient confidence in the stability of their businesses to add to their staff numbers.

The hedge fund management groups that have shed the most staff are given in Table 2 below. Ignoring the firms that have reduced Approved Person headcount by one or two people, which may be just frictional changes or voluntary departures, many of the firms appearing at the lower end of the Table have undertaken significant change post the Credit Crunch.

The firm that has made the largest absolute number reduction in their professional staff is Brevan Howard, which has opened up a trading operation in Switzerland so that formerly London based staff can escape the increase in taxation in the UK.  The exodus was led by CIO Alan Howard who has been followed by co-CEO Nagi Kawkabani to Geneva. Up to a hundred traders may be based in Geneva in time. However the opening of the Swiss office is not the only development. Brevan Howard has reconfigured the investment capabilities of the traders/managers employed. Specifically BH has cut back on allocations of capital to equity markets and funds resulting in staff departures, including a manager recruited specifically to launch an Indian equity fund, and the departure of Fabrizio Gallo who is returning to the sell-side. Gallo's BH Equity Strategies Fund has been closed. Instead the emphasis has been on adding to capabilities in commodities and macro trading. This repositioning has resulted in a net reduction in London-based investment professionals, but an expansion of the number of traders for the whole firm. Further Brevan Howard funds have produced good performance this year, and the firm is expected to continue to add teams in order to increase capacity to manage capital.


Corporate reorganisations have played a role in the appearance of other firms in Table 2. The Approved Person  headcount given for *HSBC Halbis Capital Management was up to June 2011. At that point HSBC Halbis, the alternative asset management business of HSBC, was merged into HSBC Global Asset Management, and as ever in such a merger there was duplication of staff resulting in voluntary departures and redundancies.

Polygon Investment Partners has moved from a multi-strategy approach to running a series of funds dedicated to specific investment strategies. The flagship Global Opportunities Master Fund was finally closed earlier this year, after a two-year-plus wind up process, and the residual illiquid holdings are now in the Polygon Recovery Fund. The reduction in approved persons at Polygon took place in Aug-Sept 2010 as six people left in a short period, and head count has been stable amongst the professional staff since. 

At Rubicon Fund Management the spat between returning head honcho Paul Brewer and the two men who deputised for him as CIO for two years, Timothy Attias and Santiago Alarco, has led to the change in numbers. The former co-CIOs left in January and April this year to set up their own firm Sata Partners.

Altima Partners had its peaks in assets in mid 2008 and its peak headcount in early 2009. Asset under management were $4bn three years ago and are now thought to be around $1.9bn. The count of APs has followed a similar path, though with a lag as one would expect. 38 staff members were registered with the FSA in January 2009, and the present number is 23, down from 28 in August of last year. 

The third Table here ranks the firms amongst London's largest hedge fund managers that have added the most Approved Persons with the FSA  over the period August 2010 to August 2011. In percentage terms Henderson's takeover of Gartmore has increased the Approved Persons count in a step-change by 45%, or 29 individuals.  In hedge fund terms there was some overlap in the geographical areas invested in by the two companies when separate, but the styles used to run the European equity funds, for example, were very different. This has allowed Henderson to keep most of the Gartmore investment staff, though there are bound to be some who lose out in jockeying for position in such a takeover.  

There are more themes at play in the Table listing those firms expanding than in the Table ranking those firms with declining investment and senior staff. Losses of staff numbers may be for idiosyncratic reasons, but firms add to their payroll when they have been growing their revenues for a while. In the hedge fund industry that growth in revenue can come from performance fees, based on better investment returns than a previous period, or, more likely, from higher assets under management (from subscriptions plus investment growth on existing assets). So the firms adding investment staff in 2011 would be expected to be those that have performed well enough to attract new assets.

The investment strategies that are represented in the list of expanding firms are clustered. The first cluster is in global macro/CTAs/commodities -  Capula, Man AHL, BlueCrest, Armajaro and Clive Capital. There are some multi-strategy winners - Mako Investment Managers, Arrowgrass and CQS, but perhaps a less obvious winner is in credit management. The third cluster consists of Finisterre Capital, James Caird Asset Management, and Chenavari Financial Advisors/Credit Partners - all with a considerable credit aspect to their investments.

The increase in staff numbers at Europe's largest hedge fund groups over the year to August 2011 is far from dramatic at 6%. It does come after nearly three years of decline. The strategic thrust of the global hedge fund industry has been to expand in numbers in Asia and/or emerging markets rather than Europe (or even the United States). So it is good to observe some growth in headcount in the London-based part of the industry. The fact that the owners and managers of those businesses have shown caution in adding to their cost base via the headcount in the last year should serve the industry's employees well, as tricky times have returned from the middle of this year. Although there are the highest level of redemption notices for the year in place for the end of this quarter, I don't expect even a majority of them to be acted upon. And consequently I expect the employment levels in the London hedge fund industry in the first half of next year to be similar to those we are seeing now. Some stability would be be very welcome.

Thursday, 29 July 2010

Replication out at AHL

The FINalternatives website carried a story from Financial News on AHL this week:


“The Man Group’s flagship AHL strategy has seen eight employees, including its lead algorithmic trading technologist and an academic hedge fund-replication specialist, leave the firm.


“Chetan Kotwal, the technologist, and Helder Palaro, the hedge fund-replication expert, have both left Man. Another academic, Harry Kat, has also left, along with five other more junior employees: researchers Yochen Maydt and Steven Piron, traders Tom Ryan and Rebecca Aston, analyst Will England and algorithmic trading systems developer.”


The news is interesting that AHL were seeking to build a hedge fund return replication capability. Parent Man Group sold lots of product which combined the AHL Fund with other Man Group single-manager or multi-manager fund products. The guaranteed funds were often a combination of AHL with fund of funds Glenwood. Glenwood returns were never fantastic, so eventually other funds were tried in combination with AHL, and Glenwood was subsumed into Man Glenwood.


Has AHL been working on hedge fund replication strategies to enable Man Group to offer AHL in a guaranteed product in combination with industry typical returns? If so it would not reflect well on the confidence of Man Group management in other in-house managers, either single manager or multi-manager.


As long ago as 2006 Dutch academic Harry Kat suggested that investors who wanted higher returns from hedge fund investments should fire their overpaid fund managers and replicate the funds themselves using mechanical futures trading strategies. At that time his research suggested that the synthetic funds he and Helder Palaro designed would have outperformed real funds of hedge funds 82% of the time. Kat’s prediction then was that the alternative investment market would move rapidly away from active management over the following 10 years, and synthetic hedge funds would represent around 40% of the market by 2016.


It will be interesting to hear whether actual capital invested in hedge fund replication strategies have outperformed funds of hedge funds 82% of the time since 2006, and particularly in the last two years.


Please use the comment fields below to provide an answer and I will moderate an informed discussion.